Global oil demand to rise by 2 million Bpd in 2024

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Oil demand will continue to set records this year, with global demand growth expected at nearly 2 million barrels per day (bpd) compared to 2023, Wood Mackenzie said in a report on January 11.

China will account for around 25% of the worldwide growth in oil demand, according to the energy consultancy.

Total global oil demand will average 103.5 million bpd for 2024, WoodMac said.

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“Much of the growth [in oil demand] will be coming in the second half of the year,” Alan Gelder, Senior Vice President of Research at Wood Mackenzie, said in a statement.

“This will be fueled by improving economic growth and lower interest rates.”

WoodMac expects oil supply to lag demand growth as OPEC+ supply cuts slow growth across 2024. However, the report adds that “without this production restraint the market could tilt into oversupply, especially if demand growth is below expectations.”

Wood Mackenzie’s oil demand assessment is close to OPEC’s latest outlook in its December monthly report, in which the cartel expected world oil demand growth at 2.2 million bpd for 2024, for an average of 104.4 million bpd, unchanged from the November assessment.

“Oil demand is expected to be supported by resilient global GDP growth, amid continued improvements in economic activity in China,” the cartel said in its closely watched Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for December.

“Continuous improvements in economic activity, steady manufacturing, and transportation activity mostly in China, Other Asia, and the Middle East, as well as in India and Latin America, are expected to account for the bulk of oil consumption,” according to OPEC.

The organization also noted that the “Economic growth seen in the first three quarters this year in most key economies had been better than expected.”

OPEC said that last year’s “robust economic growth is expected to extend into 2024,” and sees global economic growth at 2.6% this year.